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Bill Clinton recently suggested that a good way to stimulate the economy is by allowing homeowners to reduce their mortgages to the actual value of their homes.  If I understand the concept, it means giving the banks one swift kick in the nads so we can all move on. In theory, that might be better for everyone, including the banks, assuming it revs up the economic engine in the long run. And it might be better than watching the underwater mortgage holders walk away. I don't know if Clinton's suggestion is a good one, but it's undeniably creative.

Meanwhile, there's a bipartisan bill in congress to grant visas to anyone that can plunk down $500,000 in cash for real estate in the United States. That would prop up the real estate market and attract people that have, in all likelihood, something to add to the country in terms of talent and resources. That's a creative idea. (And it was discussed in this blog, in the comments, some time ago.)

On the other side of the world, Afghanistan is strengthening its ties with India to force Pakistan to compete, for all practical purposes, to be Afghanistan's friend instead of its frenemy. That's creative.

In the Middle East, you have Abbas using political pressure against Israel in the United Nations instead of violence. No matter what you think of that idea, it's creative.

Then you have the Arab Spring, which involves millions of citizens imagining the previously unimaginable - that they can control their own political destinies.

Former Mexican president Fox is publicly calling for the complete legalization of drugs in the United States and Mexico as a way to end the violence and reduce the cost of the war on drugs. He uses the example of prohibition to make his case. We've always had advocates for drug legalization, but I don't recall anyone at that level ever calling for ALL drugs to be legal, and for every part of the process, from growing to selling to consuming, to be legal. No matter what you think of that idea, it strikes me as creative.

Consider the Tea Party. Consider Occupy Wall Street. Consider the calls (including mine) for a constitutional convention.

You'll be tempted to argue the merits of the movements and ideas I mentioned. But hold off on that for just a minute and look at the larger landscape. I think we're experiencing a worldwide creativity boom. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it.

Everyone in the entire world - from Libya to Wall Street - just said fuck the system - let's try something new. This is the sort of creative burst you would expect just ahead of an economic boom. And that's my prediction: The next ten years will be incredible.

 
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Nov 1, 2011
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Oct 31, 2011
I sure hope you are right, Scott. Wish I could be as optimistic.
 
 
Oct 26, 2011
Hmmm. Creativity. What an interesting all-encompassing word for chaos.

I recall the wonderful creativity of world-wide communism. That creative genius, Joe Stalin, creatively killed around twelve million of his own citizens. The wonderful creative geniuses Pol Pot and Ho Chi Min killed another million and a half. What a glorious thing creativity is!

Now we have the creative Egyptians, instituting Sharia law and gunning down a couple of dozen Coptic Christians. Thinking of the creativity of the Muslim Brotherhood, and their absolute desire to shove democracy in the crapper and turn a majority of the Middle East into a creative nirvana where women are property and jihad is the driving force.

As we creatively dump Iraq into the loving hands of Iran by pulling our troops out prematurely, Iran is creatively taking their hatred of the west to new levels, planning on blowing up the Saudi and Israeli embassies while blowing up a full restaurant in DC to kill the Saudi ambassador. What a glorious thing creativity is!

Afghan President Karzai, creatively thanking us for defeating the Taliban, announced that in any war between the US and Pakistan, Afghanistan would side with the Pakistanis. President Obama's creatively weak foreign policy, his creative apology tour, and his creative seeming inability to do anything to Iran while dissing Israel, our only real ally in the middle east, is creatively making the world a much more dangerous place. What a glorious thing creativity is!

Yes, indeedy. Reverting the Middle East to the 13th-century is certainly creative. So is demanding that everyone else pay for student and mortgage debts except the people who actually incurred the debt. That is creative indeed! What a glorious thing creativity is!

If we keep on with this kind of creativity, Scott, then you won't need to worry about the economy any more. There won't be one.

Your inability to realize that much of what you're seeing is either wrong or evil, when the reality is obvious to anyone who observes rather than just lives on hope, is truly staggering. Oh, wait, I guess that's just you being. . . creative.
 
 
+2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 26, 2011
I love the occupy movement. I especially love that when you ask what it is about, no one really know. It's basically "the world is screwed and how we are running it sucks. we should change what we are doing." (www.onsale7.com) But no one really know what, do they. It's like the open ended question on Saturday night "what should we do?" No one knows but, just like those great Saturday nights, we will eventually figure it out. And it will be good.
 
 
Oct 25, 2011
Scott,

I think you may be confusing short attention spans and wishful thinking for creativity.

Regards,

SMT
 
 
Oct 25, 2011
And yeah, that thing about Arabs in post-revolution countries "imagining the previously unimaginable - that they can control their own political destinies" is so pathetically laughable. Nobody in Libiya or Egypt is imagining that, trust me. It shall be the Al Qaeda and international oil companies controlling their destiny. So all that has changed is that the poor bastards will now have less goodies and more troubles.
 
 
Oct 25, 2011
Scott, I am sure you are sincere in your delusion that the so-called "Arab Spring" has anything to do with the people who now have to enjoy its poison fruits. Please, get real
 
 
Oct 24, 2011
Technology now does the work of many humans. 200 years ago, 90% of our employment was on the farm and now it is only 2% - yet we are obese food exporters. Only 8% of our labor is in manufacturing, and we are the largest manufacturer in the world and incredibly efficient - our toothpaste factories have computerized automation that was unimaginable 20 years ago. Yes, a lot is made in China, but only stuff that changes too often, can't be automated, or pollutes too much - and that too will change.

Some people that make a lot of money do things that neither machines nor unskilled labor can't, mostly service industry jobs like doctors, lawyers, bankers, some college professors, and a very few entertainers. But reasonably the whole population can't have graduate school jobs or be celebrities. In Germany students are assigned a college or trade education based on their abilities, but their employment incomes aren't nearly as different as occurs in the states. Machines do so much for us that this could be the golden age. But there is the old Marxist problem of unequal distribution when the riches go to the owners of the machines and the skilled specialists. Communism wasn't the answer, so what is? All an interesting discussion...

But technology does NOT explain why a few years ago, 8 million Americans suddenly lost their jobs. Skynet didn't didn't acquire self-awareness in 2008. Most of the unemployed weren't construction workers. Employment in every industry and occupation has fallen, except for healthcare. Including that we now employ 300k fewer teachers. There is always some structural employment, but the suddenness and pervasiveness of our unemployment says that this is something else. We have accumulated too much debt that was invested in ways that did not increase our productivity, and now people are either paying down the debt and spending less on consumption, or they are defaulting and driving asset values down - thereby making the rest of us feel poorer and spend even less.

We always need to improve our education. But right now we need to figure out how we can de-leverage without causing our economy to shrink. I'm pretty sure we can do that by refinancing mortgages into interest rates that are comparable to short-term gov't borrowing costs and require borrowers to direct their lower savings into paying down their principal early. This will allow us to pay down our excessive debts without reducing our consumption, and thereby without reducing employment.
 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 24, 2011
Well, honestly I thought the CDOs and the Mortgage Backed Securities were also a great piece of creativity.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 24, 2011
[Wow, 7 thumbs down because I observed that unfettered capitalism has failed (pretty much everyone agrees apart from the libertarian fruitcakes)]

You might want to invest in a dictionary. There is almost nothing "unfettered" or "capitalistic" about the recent economy (both in the US and abroad). The only people who "agree" with you are the ones who shared a similar inability to properly identify and define economic realities.


[This is the sort of creative burst you would expect just ahead of an economic boom. And that's my prediction: The next ten years will be incredible.]

Scott... I don't share your optimism. I think you've completely misdiagnosed the situation. This isn't a burst of "creativity". This is simply the proletariat finally getting fed up and starting to fight back. In most cases (if not all cases) they will either a) fail to successfully fight back or b) be successful in fighting back and promptly replace the existing regime with something just as bad or worse.

Just look at Libya. They're already talking about bringing about a caliphate (which, you know, has worked out so well in all those other Middle-Eastern countries).

The Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are simply people finally waking up to the fact that there is a problem. They still have no idea exactly what the problem is (or what's causing it), and they definitely haven't the slightest clue as to how to fix it.

WATYF
 
 
Oct 23, 2011
$500,000 is the best protection a deposed tyrant or foreign mobster can buy once you get rid of those silly extradition treaties. Who wants to make a bet on that one?
 
 
Oct 23, 2011
What exactly does the guy by plunking down $500,000 in US? how exactly is he going to grow his investment? Will the state education automatically stop producing retards? will the beggars stop demanding that he give away his real estate investment to charity as it is their right? more likely he will his investment will reduce to 50$ value. He will throw that stupid @come squander your money in this mooch country visa" back at your face.
 
 
Oct 23, 2011
Please don't associate libertarians with free market nut-jobs who quote Adam Smith "invisible-hand" nonsense while completely in denial of monopolistic abuses.

This site is heavily filled with older folk who fancy themselves on a comeback based on sycophantic anything-they-can-get-attention-with drivel. They aren't very different than people who toot their horn at tech sites regarding their arcane knowledge that nobody really is interested in anymore. Don't worry too much about them. They tend to astroturf but only get negative results. Even Scott is backing off on the self-made man nonsense. It's just plain mean-spirited.

None the less, I'm not so optimistic. The real barrier to stability is yet to be touched; dynastic power. The cream does not rise to the top. Only a war is likely to break that barrier. Neither option is desirable.

Politics among the "intellectual" crowd is only a reaction to corporate abuse. They really don't want an end to dynastic authority because it is endemic to their own caste. Without that caste, the working class is likely to go Communist and that is another choice that isn't desirable.

Finally, the groups who suffer the most from dynastic authority are minorities. If they become the organizational leadership of internal reform, they are likely to engage in retribution. That is implicit as the corporate powers have always worked side by side with organized crime when the government does not give them their way. The "intelligentsia" isn't very likely to accept so much of their "Western Civilization" written off as little more than chimps who fashion sticks to pull termites out of their nests. The government has decided that backing minorities loses elections.

Preventing racism is a discipline that has yet to be little more than a token effort. Sometimes you have to let a person do things the hard way because you don't understand the reasons why. They are VERY often real AND important.

Is this response a bit more genuinely libertarian?
 
 
-7 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 23, 2011
Wow, 7 thumbs down because I observed that unfettered capitalism has failed (pretty much everyone agrees apart from the libertarian fruitcakes) and commercial innovation isn't significantly improving the product in a tonne of industries from films to food.
 
 
Oct 23, 2011
Only one of those ideas seems creative to me, and that's the $500000 visa one. Or at least, only one seems *inventive*, which I think is what you meant - they're all pretty constructive, in case that was what you meant.

The other ones all seem really obvious and self-evident. People walking away from their houses !$%*! the people and (nominally) the banks who have to put in a lot of money and effort seizing the house, fixing it up and reselling it. Several people I know who walked away would have been delighted with even "we'll reduce what you owe to 125% of the current property value", but all they were offered was either "up yours, we won't help you at all because you're still paying so why should we?" or "oh now you stopped paying and we've already totally ruined your credit, *now* you can reduce your payments, but you'll still owe the full amount, so it won't ever get paid off, and your credit won't be fixed, and after a few years we'll arbitrarily decide you didn't qualify for this offer after all and stick you back to your original screwed position only worse."

*That* was a creative idea. Completely and utterly stupid, but creative. "Hey, if you don't decide to walk away from it, we'll reduce what you owe to only a small amount more than what it's worth, and you can change or not change your payments accordingly" isn't very creative, it's the self-evident solution that benefits everyone except foreclosure lawyers and real estate agents.

Legalizing and taxing drugs is also obvious for both reducing expenses, increasing revenue, and not really harming anyone since it's not like people who want drugs have that much of a hard time getting them as it is, and people who don't want drugs won't suddenly want them just because they're legal. Obviously there'd be a legal drugsing age just like there's a drinking age. Like the man says, just like with repealing prohibition, serious violent crimes are reduced when you stop trying to force "don't do things you enjoy" laws on people.

Mind, that $500000 visa thing isn't a very impressive idea because the US already has two different rich person visas you can get. One involves investing a million dollars, if I recall correctly, and I think the other involves creating jobs. Problem is, the US isn't really all that attractive to a person in that position, because they already have a very nice life wherever they are.
 
 
-2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 23, 2011
I CAN'T GET THE DAMN THING TO STOP BLINKING!!! AAARRG! There is one button for setting everything and I can't get the morse code right. What manager came up with that bright idea? I got it, to save money, remove some buttons. "And there are simply too many notes, that's all. Just cut a few and it will be perfect." (Ya kidding, that was probably funnier in my head than what you heard in your head.)

I don't get up at the same time every day. It used to be that my dogs woke me, and since they woke by the daylight levels, which changes by a few minutes each day, it would be at a different time on different days, cycling throughout the year. Now I wake when my bladder does. Since I work from "home" I have not set an alarm clock in 20 years. I could try adding a daylight sensor, but would probably end up starting and stopping the coffee several times during the night.

(I guess I'd set the timer, then disconnect the buttons so it couldn't be changed.... Do you think any woman in her right mind would live with me?)

It is interesting that the engineers in other cultures often have different standards than me. Turning keys one way locks them, turning the other way unlocks them, up is on, down is off, and it seems that growing cultures miss the details when copying product manufacturing. My new microwave oven doesn't have the same rotation timing as my old one that kept the handle facing me when done. (Didn't I read that in Adams' blog?)

Learn to be observant enough to copy well, and it will make one's creativity and problem solving that much better.

I've been toying with the idea to put together a seminar or workshop to teach creativity and problem solving skills to students, and tour the schools. (Yes, it can be taught and repeated. Metaphor Man and his dog Scamper...) the Internet has been incredible for putting together ideas and researching things that took days in a good library. Whenever I'm depressed, I take a moment and appreciate how mind blowing is the Internet.

Scott suggested using States to test ideas of governing. Mitsubishi is sending 1,000 electric cars to Normal, IL. Let's see what works and what doesn't if a whole town is using EV. Corprations are States, are they not?

...and we should try to keep our priorities straight. Let's look at the hole in the ship's hull before focusing on the coffee maker.

/Sorry, Rainy Sunday Morning Rant
 
 
Oct 23, 2011
"Everyone in the entire world - from Libya to Wall Street - just said ---- the system - let's try something new. This is the sort of creative burst you would expect just ahead of an economic boom. And that's my prediction: The next ten years will be incredible."

You are assuming they want a better system and know how to create it. To borrow a phrase from grantland.com's Bill Simmons when he was talking about the NBA lockout, I think the people behind it all lack the Intellectual Capital to create a better system as well as lack the Moral Capital to want one. Political nature abhors freedom, so I would expect things to get worse, not better.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 23, 2011
It is true that creativity can be used destructively or constructively, what we all must remember is that crooks, governments, lawyers, and other devious bods have by definition always had to be creative to do what they do.

What we're seeing now is the relative growth of constructive creativity, and that can only be a good thing.
 
 
Oct 22, 2011
@MTBob

One more thing. If you live with a woman or coffee drinking kids you might as well get two. Trust me. They'll reset the timer on you every single time. It'll never fail. I'm not kidding, you follow my advice right here and you'll thank yourself for doing it.
 
 
Oct 22, 2011
@ MTBob

You make some valued points, but I feel I should help you with one little thing. They do make coffee makers with timers now. All you have to do is set it to the current time, the time you want it to start brewing, and make sure it has coffee and water. That's it. I hope that brightens your day a little bit.
 
 
 
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