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Last night my wife convinced me to watch the finale of The Bachelorette. (Spoiler alert) It's a so-called reality show in which one woman chooses a man from an initial group of 24. On the first episode, the bachelorette gave a "first impression rose" to the guy who stood out from the pack in a positive way. By the final show she had decided that the man who made the best first impression was in fact the best of the bunch. The chosen guy was clearly the most handsome of the bachelors, so it wasn't a huge surprise.

But it made me reflect on how many times my own first impressions are accurate. Consider movies. I can tell you whether or not I will like an entire movie within the first two minutes, with perhaps a 95% success rate. In fact, that first two minutes is probably more predictive than the movie trailer.

It's the same with books. I can open a book to any page, read any half-dozen sentences, and come away with an accurate idea of how much I might enjoy the entire book.

Cars, homes, pets - it's the same thing. Whatever I like in the first minute, I usually like forever. Assuming most of you are the same way, to some degree, what does it say about people?

One theory is that we're good at predicting the quality of things from scant clues. But can you really tell if a movie will have a good plot, which presumably matters, from the first two minutes?

A second theory is that we make up our minds about things based on the first few irrational cues, and everything that follows is rationalization. So if there's something in the first two minutes of a movie that I like, for whatever subconscious reasons, I later think that the directing, acting, and plot were also good (enough), even if on some objective level they were not.

As part of my training for hypnosis, years ago, I learned that human brains are rationalization machines, not logic machines. That's hard to accept, especially in yourself. Your brain tells you otherwise. It insists it is completely rational.

Do you believe you have been rational in your important decisions in life?

 
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Aug 12, 2010
A third theory, is that every movie has two basic components, 1) is the story and 2) the person telling the story. You can figure out quite quickly if you can connect with the person telling the story. If you don't, you won't like the movie.

To your question: No. I consider myself a rational type of guy, but the important decisions are important because they are hard, meaning they involve a lot of uncertain factors and sometimes predicting the future, which is hard. If you had all the facts, the decision would be easy and you wouldn't think about it or consider it important. But because you don't have that, you'll have to trust your gut feeling or something. Which can explain why many turn to things like astrology when they face important decisions.
 
 
Aug 10, 2010
When I want to understand someone, I ask myself what a completely irrational person would be thinking. Then I talk to that person like he/she's completely logical and rational, even if I know it to be otherwise.

It works every time.
 
 
-1 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 10, 2010
Hard to say such things, but we have to correct their attitude
www.acheterkama.com
 
 
Aug 9, 2010
Reminds me of a study wherein students were shown to be quite good at rating an instructor after only six seconds of video: http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2006/05/the_sixsecond_teacher_evaluati.php
 
 
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Aug 9, 2010
no
 
 
0 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 9, 2010
no
 
 
Aug 8, 2010
I am not sure if it matters which one is more correct on the back end, as much as it matters which way you are willing to be wrong. If you go with your "gut", and are wrong, will you be more or less happy than if you go with your "brain" and are wrong?

As I have gotten older, it seems that by a wide margin, I am "happier" at the end if I go with my gut, even if I end up being wrong.
 
 
Aug 8, 2010
my 'rational' mind decided 2 minutes is not enough time to judge. as a general rule, i delay judgment far longer than average people would consider prudent.

so for me, reality looks like this: people are chickens running around with heads cut off, prejudging everything and everyone, and have a mysterious way of having hunches that turn out to be true.

their mysterious hunches are just their 'preguesses' being right, which i am unwilling to commit to.

regardless of my participation, their methodologies may be correct, and i am missing life on sidelines, too afraid to make a mistake.

i think a lot of it has to do with being leftbrained, and public school institutional socialization. its full of 'forestall judgment' cuz racism is wrong.

in short, i haven't ventured to make early judgments, and actively refuse to, so i am unable to say whether i am any good at it. which scott adams extrapolated from his internal workings onto the rest of humanity for the basis for his hypothetical. i would have to agree with him tho, that people in general make quick judgments, and they are generally decent at being correct.

when i do venture to judge, its generally more thorough, insightful, accurate, and complete than veterans of the subject, although, at that point, i guess i am a veteran too LOL just not accepted by group to be such.
 
 
Aug 8, 2010
I certainly hope not. It doesn't make any sense.
 
 
Aug 8, 2010
Dear Scott:

I would like to answer your question, but I haven't made an important decision yet. Since I am now 39 years old, some might say I have made the very important decision to NOT make an important decision. But that's not true ... I'm still thinking about it. I'm trying to be very, *very* rational, and weigh ALL the pros and cons. But I'll tell you what ... I'll let you know once I decide.

(It may be that, in the end, I'll just flip a coin - haven't decided yet if that's a good idea.)
 
 
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Aug 7, 2010
Can't rationalization be completely logical, at least in some !$%*!$%*!$%*!$ Take the example of the cartoonist retiring to the tropics. If cold weather makes you miserable, you're probably not going to move to Alaska (unless it's a money-making strategy to save for the tropics, in which you weigh the current pain against the perceived future benefits).

For example, I know I do not function well in any environment which does not grant me a large degree of freedom - when anyone else imposes an obligation upon me that I oppose because I haven't explicitly signed up for it (or at least feel like I haven't been given a choice), it makes me impatient, angry, frustrated, and resentful. That reflex is involuntary, like breathing. The alternative would be willingly becoming an obedient sheep - which is irrational, as giving up control and flexibility will probably put you in a bad position for attaining your long-term goals AND make you miserable in the process.

This is why I prefer flexible employers (for example, my current job lets me work slightly off-peak hours to avoid rush-hour traffic) and have a hard time finding any politician I can feel good about voting for (as they're always trying to tell me what to do or what not to do, down to a ridiculous level of minutiae, and usually with unplanned and/or damaging side effects).

In case you can't tell, I'm an INTJ who's been reading a lot of John Taylor Gatto lately :) - his basic premise, as I see it, is that corporatist capitalists and socialists do essentially the same thing to people: use behavioral science to try to make predictable, cookie-cutter individuals who can be easily controlled. Research showing that people think like these sorts of people may be tainted by the fact that the powers that be are trying to achieve this goal, but that hardly makes it the natural human condition. It also might be that we do not yet correctly understand the interaction between various parts of the brain.
 
 
Aug 6, 2010
Woolly-headed, life is too rational, you do not think the lack of flexibility in it?
http://www.wxfjgc.com/真空耙式干燥机
 
 
Aug 6, 2010
:-) good point, Scott. Reminds me of some of Malcolm Gladwell's writings ... it is kind of scary .. at times we think we are rational, but in the end, emotion / feelings do play an important part. That was the idea espoused in Inception.
 
 
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Aug 6, 2010
Creepy timing, huh?

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/05/the-limits-of-reason.html
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 5, 2010
I thought about you today when I saw the news.

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1992-07-12/
 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 5, 2010
What exactly would a "completely rational" person be like?

"Rationality" is about correctly connecting two things: premise and conclusion, cause and effect, whatever. But the premise has to come from somewhere. Before you can say "In order to retire to a remote, comfortable home in a place of my choice, I should become a globally syndicated cartoonist", you have to have the *desire* to retire to that place. And there's nothing rational about that desire, it's just something that happens to appeal to you.

That's why computers, given no input, don't get on with their own private projects - they just sit there - because they don't have those initial desires, at least until someone programs them in.

"Irrational" is just another word for "motivated by something I don't understand, or can't articulate". Like what you like, and don't feel guilty about it.
 
 
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Aug 5, 2010
hey zulu- free will is exactly why I'm no longer married
 
 
Aug 5, 2010
Maintaining the illusion of free will is exactly why I'm no longer married. And no one has yet convinced me to watch an episode of The Bachelorette.

Shaka
 
 
+3 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 5, 2010
WE HAVE TO BELIEVE IN FREEWILL--- WE HAVE NO CHOICE!
 
 
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Aug 5, 2010
I have not been completely rational in most of the decisions in my life. Which is a good thing, because you need emotions to make decisions. Maybe somebody already mentioned this in the comments, but you have probably heard of patients that have a malfunction in the brain and they completely lack emotions. These people are unable to live independantly, they can't make the simplest of decisions. For every choice, they weigh all the arguments pro and con, and they take forever to reach a conclusion.

For the important decisions you can afford to take more time, but it isn't it always the case that there is a list of arguments for and against every decision? How do you decide which criterion is more important then another one? You revert to emotions.
 
 
 
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