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I was chatting with a small business owner recently. He provides a service that is a purely discretionary purchase. His business had been slow for the past few years because of the economy. But over this holiday season, he had all the work he could handle, and it was all local. He considers his business an early indicator for the economy as a whole. This made me curious. Was the economy starting to revive? So I started looking for other signs of recovery.

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, where you'd expect signs of an improved economy to show up first. And sure enough, things around here are looking up all over the place. I thought I'd give you some examples to lift your weekend. If the economy is still weak where you live, or you're struggling personally, perhaps it will help to know that there are bright spots in the country that are likely to spread. It has to start somewhere.

Last night I was standing in line at a local fast food place and ran into a woman I've known for eleven years. She's a server at a white tablecloth restaurant in town. She told me business was slow last year, but picking up nicely so far this year. That's good to hear.

The weirdest bit of good economic news is the number of my friends who are working on startups. Most of them have good jobs already, but they're looking to get something going on the side as well. Weirder yet, I know several people who are working on more than one startup at the same time. If my wife and I threw a party at our house, and invited our usual group of friends, we'd have at least nine startups in the room. I'm probably forgetting a few. I've lived in this area all of my life, and I've never seen this much entrepreneurial energy.

A friend recently interviewed for a good job. The interviewing company offered him a choice of two positions. This happened right around Christmas. When was the last time you saw someone get a job around Christmas? And when was the last time you saw someone do one job interview and get two offers?

Two years ago I rarely saw any new construction in the area. Now I see a lot of it, including homes and roads. Road construction used to annoy me because of delays. Now it makes me happy because it's a sign of an improving economy.

Unemployment is still an issue, but among the people I know locally, far fewer are unemployed now compared to a year or two ago. That seems to be moving in the right direction.

Nationally, stocks are up, and as of this morning, unemployment rates have dropped more than expected. Economies generally don't move sideways. Usually they move up or down. As far as I can tell, things are getting better where I live. The exception is housing prices, which probably have further to fall. But the penalty for walking away from an underwater mortgage seems smallish these days, and I think people have psychologically discounted their home equity losses and are ready to move on.

We have a long way to go, but as far as I can tell, we're heading in the right direction. How about where you live? Leave a comment saying where you live and whether or not your local economy is improving. Tell me what you observe within driving distance.

 
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+13 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 7, 2012
Scott,

You stupid jerk. Everything sucks, you rich, privileged egomaniac. Something good may have happened to me once, but at least 14 bad things are happening to me RIGHT NOW. Come to think of it, nothing good ever happened.

Thanks for nothing.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
i live in spain. nuff said.
 
 
+2 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
I"m in South Africa. Business here is definitely picking up, people are more positive than I've seen in years. People are talking about leaving dead-end jobs they have been afraid to let go until now. There are job offers around, new ideas are being considered even in the most dinosaur-like corporates.

I got a real property bargain, so I put my flat on the market thinking it was going to take 6-12 months. It was sold in 2 months, for more than I thought I'd get. There's lots of buyers around if you're not greedy.

There's a long way to go, but yes, I'd say things are improving.
 
 
-13 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
I think the economic news must be good if products such as this http://ohmibod.com/ are being shown at CES. So Scott must have been channelling those folks when he wrote his "Writing Yourself Off" entry.
 
 
Feb 6, 2012
As someone who writes and speaks about how the mind works (my speaking site is www.dmarkwheeler.com) I'm surprised Scott did not mention that our brains always find things in our environment to support any idea we choose. I am sure he understands the concept since he has studied hypnosis and the workings of the mind as well.

On the other hand, it was a pleasant experience to consider that the economy is improving and I thank Scott for placing this thought out there for us. We should always be careful that we do not delude ourselves through our "selective attention" so I encourage everyone to take actions that are appropriate for their own situation.

Now I'm going to go work on my start-up !
 
 
0 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
I live in a state that supposedly is doing better than most. My two observations? The week before Christmas, a major mall was not really that busy (still busy, but unlike every other year, you could easily find parking). Also, traffic has actually been considerably lighter for the past 2 months or so, especially in the morning.

So either people are not spending and staying home unemployed, or they're shopping online and telecommuting more. Not sure how I could tell which, though.
 
 
+10 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
Current situation in the Netherlands: stable, as in badly stable. The cost of living rises rapidly, whilst paychecks have been flat for many years now. The housing market is completely stuck and devaluating, and unlike the US, you can't walk away from it here. Mass lay-offs of thousands are daily news and there's only new hires in nice industries, yet they expect you to be young, very experienced, cheap, and go down on your knees to beg for the job. Soon our government will announce the next "savings" package, which will trouble the middle class even further. They will cut in benefits of home owners and compensation for daycare, making it even more impossible for middle class families to survive. At the same time the economy must grow to outgrow our debt, but its not possible if you keep taking away people's money.

Part of me thinks this situation is permanent and will get even worse due to an aging population and the rise of Asia. Part of western middle class will ultra specialize and be able to adapt to this new world via entrepeneurship, networking and innovation. The other 90% is screwed and may revolt.
 
 
-21 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 6, 2012
Basic Rules for a short life:

1. Break the rules!

2. Kiss slowly!

3. Love truly!

4. Laugh uncontrollably!

5. And never ever regret anything that made you feel good!

.
 
 
-14 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 5, 2012
I hope you ignore that voting pattern. These are election times. Seems like some weasel is exclusively deployed for the task.

.
 
 
Feb 5, 2012
We've got construction all over the place - probably 100 or more high-rises alone, plus a new subway system, and a new high speed rail passing through just down the road. Every year I think has seen a new superhighway in the neighborhood, and our international airport has been completely rebuilt and upgraded. My university has been adding several new buildings every year, and every year we add 2000 or 3000 new students. Seven years ago I was on the edge of farmland. Now there is city all around. The cornfield in back of me
 
 
Feb 4, 2012
Since I can't edit:

14. Gas is still $3.50ish (high for the area) and food prices, as well as everything else are still way up. Wages have not doubled to keep up. For most people, this is what I assume will be one of the biggest indicators of a turnaround and until food is cheap again and gas is under $1.50 where it belongs I don't see a turnaround for the everyman happening.
 
 
Feb 4, 2012
Judging by the ratings, I think everyone either hates you for living in an economically good area, or they hate you because in 10 years you'll have a better chance of being a billionaire than they are.



Anyways, I live in the tampa bay area of florida.

1. The state just banned internet cafes because people gamble in them. Byebye 13k jobs. Yet gambling in lottos that go directly to the state and when people take the big payout half the money goes out of state to uncle sam happen to be perfectly legal.
2. The state is trying to create an internet sales tax and amazon is threatening not to move 3k jobs for a distribution center here. If the bribes from the local businesses get the law passed, I am going out of my way not to buy anything locally (save for food) again. If those sons-of-b****** want to hurt the consumer, I say the consumer should avoid them at all costs.
3. The county is putting overpasses in on the road to and from work. It's going to take years and because of what the construction is doing I see more and more businesses along the road closing down. Once the work is done, you aren't going to be able to see all the shops down there unless you knew they were there.
4. The mall has just as many empty stores as it always does since the recession started.
5. One of my neighbors is pretty poor. The ones on the other side (a mom, her kid and grandkid) are even worse off.
6. The cafeteria I eat at every weekend still seems kinda empty.
7. I know some people at work who are having a tough time.
8. During the Christmas season, save for black friday, I didn't see that many people buying stuff.
9. Jacksonville failed to draft tim tebow, the only one who could have saved the franchise, 2 drafts ago and if they get any emptier, I say they are moving out of state.
10. I wish the rays would move instead of taking up a ton of tax dollars to fund a stadium that no one will still go to and the rays will still move out after it is built.
11. The county wants to put in 22 miles of light rail at a cost of 75million a mile. I don't think we can afford the extra tax burden.
12. The city just put in red light cameras so until driving habits change, by doing things like not turning right on red, a lot of people are going to be fined and will have less money to support the local economy.
13. I haven't even know what the federal government has been doing lately to screw us over.

Long story short only popular idiots get elected and these idiots are doing all they can to kill our economy, at least in florida.


I wonder if a certain someone created this blog post as an economic placebo in hopes that lying about good news will make people think everything is better. However my placebodar just went off so I'm not buying it.
 
 
Feb 4, 2012
AS the old saying goes, "When your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. When you lose your job, it's a depression." The point being that subjective measures don't mean much. If it's agonizingly horrible, then just getting to where it's deeply horrible is an improvement, but you're still in the doldrums.

It also is a matter of bias and perspective. Let me give you a pertinent example: In August 2003, reacting to a July unemployment rate of 6.2 percent, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi asked "Where are the jobs, Mr. President?" Of course, at the time the GDP was growing at a 7.2% rate, at the fastest pace in nearly two decades.

Currently, the GDP is growing at roughly 1%, the unemployment rate is 8.3% (but that's not counting the long-term unemployed, who, if they were counted, would put the rate at 10.5%). So what is Ms. Pelosi saying now? Well, in 2011, she said that the unemployment rate jumping from 8.8% to 9% was "good news." And she blamed George W. Bush for the state of the economy.

We all hope the economy will improve. But we need to be honest about how bad it is right now, and look for government actions that will encourage business to grow rather than burdening business to the point where it's non-competitive in the world market. Being positive and optimistic makes us feel better, but it won't help us if we use optimism to ignore reality.

 
 
-10 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 4, 2012
Wow, the most down thumbs I have ever seen for one of your blog posts, -119 as I post this comment. The individual posts are not obviously enraged at your thesis, although a few are upset that your comments about a positive economy are simply a way of "loving" Obama. Have we come to the point in our society that beginning to recover from the worst economic crisis since the great depression is a bad thing for 50% of the country because it helps the incumbent?

How can the most successful capitalistic nation in history not be happy that things are getting better? If it is the politics, something is seriously wrong with our system and us.
 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 4, 2012
The North Texas (DFW) area didn't suffer much during the recession due to the large number of oil & gas and defense companies. There wasn't much of a housing bubble. Recent trends are up in some ways, but now down in defense (and natural gas prices are plummeting). Lockheed Martin had a large reduction (probably more coming) and the economy finally caught up with American Airlines who went bankrupt and is about to layoff thousands. Still, this continues to be a great place to live.
 
 
+14 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 4, 2012
ROCHESTER, NY: I keep hearing how the economy is picking up, but I have been underemployed for almost 2 years now. I have a Master's degree in English - I know, not the most practical degree, but I have been applying for administrative-type jobs in the area's many colleges, all of which I am well-qualified for, and have only had 2 interviews and no offers. I've been teaching since I obtained my Master's, but adjunct teaching doesn't pay enough to live on. I have sent out something like 75 resumes/applications and have been networking like crazy. I have outstanding references and good experience. Perhaps it's my age: though a recent college grad, I'm 52. I don't like to think that one factor is enough to immediately eliminate me, but maybe it is.
 
 
+12 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 3, 2012
Scott,

Incidentally it is also a season of elections in India. I don't know how the process compares with the US.

This is how elections happen in the world's largest democracy - India.

For some strange reason, statistical indices like nation-wide unemployment, inflation, recessions and booms are forgotten on election day. Political power and associated politics, in India, is only for shareholders, not the citizenry.

On election day, the candidates hire every vehicle they can get to bring voters from their houses to the polling booths. Alcohol is distributed free to the voters before they go in to cast their votes. Cash-for-votes is a ritual. Leaders of religious factions are promised sops and government funds in return for a chunk of their communal votes.

The issue of 'Corruption' is keeping the country's media charged. But this media reaches less than 5% of the 1.2 billions, and for most of the viewers, election day is a national holiday. They'd rather go on a family outing to the nearest hillstation.

Scott, if you were an Indian in India today, the content of this blog post could have been misread as propaganda. Silent readers might have assumed that you are hedging your chances for a share in the policy making process in the next government.

.
 
 
Feb 3, 2012
I'm noticing a lot of "Help Wanted" signs in windows of establishments in Pittsburgh...a sign that either they are preparing for an increase in customers, or some other thing happened that caused loads of people to quit.
 
 
+15 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 3, 2012
I'm in San Antonio which hasn't really suffered all that much, so I can't say anything has changed for the better or worse. Never been enough high-tech jobs here and most of the people are under educated. That hasn't changed. My unemployed 25-year-old son is still unemployed and living with us, as he has been since he dropped out of college 5 years ago.
 
 
Feb 3, 2012
First, I would not consider the bay area a good measure of the economy as a whole. Second, road construction is an indicator of nothing, except perhaps some of the billions of 'stimulus' might have actually made it past the environmental review and engineering phase. The only thing I've noticed lately is the skyrocketing price of tuition and electricity. In the companies I've worked for or with recently, they are having trouble filling positions with skilled employees. Gone forever are the days of filling positions with warm bodies, and the new economy will continue to have high unemployment due to that fact.
 
 
 
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