In my book The Religion War, written ten years ago, I predicted a future in which terrorists could destroy anything above ground whenever they wanted. They simply used inexpensive drones with electronics no more sophisticated than an Android app.

Fast-forward to today, Iran is sending drones to Hezbollah, and Hezbollah has training camps right next to Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles. Meanwhile, Hamas has its own drone production facility, or did, until Israel found it. One presumes Hamas will build more. How long will it be before Israel is facing suicide drones that only cost its enemies $100 apiece, fit in the trunk of a car, and can guide themselves to within 20 feet of any target? I'd say five years.

So what happens when the drone attacks start happening in volume? Let's game this out. My assumption is that the coming inevitable wave of hobby-sized suicide drones will be unstoppable because they will fly low to their target and be so numerous that no defense will be effective. I predict it will be too dangerous to live above ground in Israel within ten years unless the trend is reversed. But what could stop the trend?

Surely the terrorists won't give up. Surely Iran and others will keep the terrorists well-supplied. Surely Israel can't conquer every pocket of terrorism in the region. And surely Israel won't surrender and walk away.

It's your turn to be a futurist. Please describe in the comments any scenario you can imagine in which Israeli cities are still habitable in ten years. And be sure to give your best guess on the odds of your scenario playing out.

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Nov 16, 2012
I don't know if this counts as a scenario in which Israeli cities are habitable ten years from now but I predict we will see a lot of counter terrorism; that is, terrorist attacks against Arab targets, probably from Jewish groups, possibly from our white supremacist groups and similar groups in Europe. My probability rating for this: 50%.

I also think theres a slim chance (call it 5%) within ten years that Arabs will realize that terrorism isn't working and try something more peaceful.
Nov 16, 2012
You need to read the techno thriller "Kill Decision" by Daniel Suarez. All three of his books are good, but "Kill Decision" covers a very similar scenario to what you propose...although backed by industry forces rather than terrorists.
Scary stuff.
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