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Last night I watched Piers Morgan interview famous lawyer Alan Dershowitz on the topic of waterboarding and how it might have contributed to finding Bin Laden. I love watching Dershowitz defend his opinions, even when I don't agree, because he's one of the best communicators on the planet. Keep that in mind when I make my oh-so-fascinating point that has nothing to do with waterboarding.

First, some context: My hypothesis is that we humans automatically sort topics into two opposing viewpoints, or buckets. In the rare cases when we encounter a third opinion, we can't easily process it because our brains don't have a third bucket.

For example, on the topic of using waterboarding to get useful information from terrorists, the two opinion buckets are:

1.       Waterboarding works and we should do it.

2.       Waterboarding doesn't work and we should not do it.

Dershowitz expressed a third view that I had never heard until last night: Waterboarding works, but we shouldn't do it.

I stopped what I was doing when I heard Dershowitz' opinion, and waited to see if my Two-Bucket hypothesis would hold true. My prediction was that Piers wouldn't be able to process this third view. I can't find the transcript, but paraphrasing, Piers said something along the lines of "I'm confused. What side are you on?"

To be fair, Piers might have fully understood Dershowitz but assumed that viewers would be confused. It's an interviewer's job to ask what he imagines the audience would want him to ask. Piers is smart enough to know that his viewers are two-bucket thinkers. Dershowitz went on to explain his opinion with his usual clarity. But I'll bet if you did a survey today on people who watched the interview, 80% would say Dershowitz supported one of the two standard opinions on waterboarding, and respondents would be split down the middle as to which one it was.

I came up with the two-bucket hypothesis by observing how some people react to this blog. When I float an idea that doesn't fit into one of the two standard buckets for a given topic, people assume I am an enemy from the other bucket and post comments to that effect. Notice how often the commenters here argue against what I write as if my posts must be supporting one of the two existing buckets. That's the two-bucket phenomenon in action.

I wonder if our brains are natural two-bucket processors or if we have been trained that way by our adversarial political system. In the United States, every issue seems to get sorted into two buckets, with Democrats generally favoring one bucket and Republicans generally favoring the other. I wonder if our political system is making citizens dumber by encouraging us to think that there are only two valid opinions for every topic.

 
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Aug 4, 2011
Two-bucket brain hypothesis: In reading the original blog and the subsequent comments, it seems that the arguments revolve around whether two-bucket thinking is physiological (bicameral brain) or cultural & intellectual laziness (limiting the choices people have to consider). My opinion is closest to the idea that ClintonLuke alluded to, which is that distilling issues down to dual, opposing thoughts (or political parties) is more deeply rooted in nature. This duality or polarization is reminiscent of structures seen in the natural world such as sign of a charged elementary particle, sex, binary systems, good/bad, yay or nay, to be or not to be, etc.

Certainly, most issues have multiple components to consider and "simply" casting an issue into two opposing viewpoints may seem to ignore important interpretations. However, distilling an issue into its simplest polar representation, which most efficiently parses it, may require significant intellectual effort and the ability think creatively ("out-of-the-box"). For example, the waterboarding issue might be better analyzed by considering whether torture is acceptable or not in a given context (two buckets).

Thus, using a two-party system may be the most natural and efficient way to tackle complex issues. Then again, I can't believe I just said that given the performance of our government lately!

 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
May 8, 2011
@Phantom

"If waterboarding works, then the only issue is when it should be used and who should authorize its use. This is neither a joke nor an intellectual exercise: it is possibly the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands of people."

What if raping or murdering the captive's children "works." Would it then still be the case that the only issue is when it should be used and who should authorize its use?

In any instance, it's obvious you don't really believe this, since you use the remainder of your posts trying to make the case that waterboarding isn't torture. If you really believed what you wrote above, it wouldn't matter.

"And yes, I know whereof I speak. I was waterboarded as a part of SERE training. It was not pleasant, but it is not torture. If you don't know the definition of torture, you need to educate yourself before passing judgement."

There is a key difference between what happened to you and a real interrogation scenario -- you knew your trainers would not kill you. From what I understand of training, you had a "safe word" that would end the waterboarding. Yes, with other negative consequences for you, but not death by drowning.

And no, that a captive could end the waterboarding by revealing the key information is not the same thing, because the captive has no way of knowing if the information he has will be sufficient to make it stop.


"And saying that we don't know if other methods of interrogation might have obtained the same result is the last bastion of idiocy in the face of reality. You can't prove a negative. You can't prove some other method might have yielded the same results. But you do know that enhanced interrogation worked, and led to the death of one of history's most hated mass murderers"

I would dispute that we do in fact know that. We know that we used these techniques. And we know that we ended up with sufficient information to make the hit. We also had highly intrusive screenings at airports, and no more attacks. Should we thus conclude that it is because of these screenings, and thus continue them indefinitely?
 
 
May 8, 2011
Sorry for the double-post. I'm sending this from Oia, Santorini Greece, and the response time is unusually long. Then again, my post is so good that it deserves to be read twice.
 
 
May 8, 2011
Booshwaw.

People should take sides on important issues. To not do so is to be what is called in various vernacular as "wimps," !$%*!$%*! and more harshly, "cowards." You certainly should know enough about a subject to have an informed opinion - that's one of your main duties as a citizen.

But to sit on the sidelines and try to nuance your way out of ever having to take a side is nothing more than intellectual laziness. Show me the books written about famous undecisive people of history. More often than not, they're footnotes in how not to make a decision, and the disastrous results of so doing.

Dershowitz is certainly entitled to his opinion. However, his opinion is nonsensical in the extreme. If waterboarding works, then the only issue is when it should be used and who should authorize its use. This is neither a joke nor an intellectual exercise: it is possibly the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands of people.

And yes, I know whereof I speak. I was waterboarded as a part of SERE training. It was not pleasant, but it is not torture. If you don't know the definition of torture, you need to educate yourself before passing judgement.

And saying that we don't know if other methods of interrogation might have obtained the same result is the last bastion of idiocy in the face of reality. You can't prove a negative. You can't prove some other method might have yielded the same results. But you do know that enhanced interrogation worked, and led to the death of one of history's most hated mass murderers.

So suck it up, man up, and stop being so namby pamby.
 
 
May 8, 2011
Booshwaw.

People should take sides on important issues. To not do so is to be what is called in various vernacular as "wimps," !$%*!$%*! and more harshly, "cowards." You certainly should know enough about a subject to have an informed opinion - that's one of your main duties as a citizen.

But to sit on the sidelines and try to nuance your way out of ever having to take a side is nothing more than intellectual laziness. Show me the books written about famous undecisive people of history. More often than not, they're footnotes in how not to make a decision, and the disastrous results of so doing.

Dershowitz is certainly entitled to his opinion. However, his opinion is nonsensical in the extreme. If waterboarding works, then the only issue is when it should be used and who should authorize its use. This is neither a joke nor an intellectual exercise: it is possibly the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands of people.

And yes, I know whereof I speak. I was waterboarded as a part of SERE training. It was not pleasant, but it is not torture. If you don't know the definition of torture, you need to educate yourself before passing judgement.

And saying that we don't know if other methods of interrogation might have obtained the same result is the last bastion of idiocy in the face of reality. You can't prove a negative. You can't prove some other method might have yielded the same results. But you do know that enhanced interrogation worked, and led to the death of one of history's most hated mass murderers.

So suck it up, man up, and stop being so namby pamby.
 
 
May 6, 2011
How about a third option:

Not sure if it works but looks like it would have been fun to try on OBL.
 
 
May 6, 2011
Don't you suppose that dualities are functions of our bicameral brains? We always see dualities, black and white, wrong and right when they don't exist. There is a lot of grades of gray between the bottom of a coal mine and the surface of the sun, for example. We grade people as black or white, when neither of those colors exist in human skin.

Poetry? Or just the fact that we have to sides to our brains. Some SF writers have had some fun with the concept of aliens with trilateral symmetry, or greater, but they have real problems mocking up their thought processes, because we have bicameral brains.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
May 6, 2011
http://www.alandershowitz.com/publications/docs/torturewarrants.html
"The Case for Torture Warrants, by Alan M. Dershowitz".

"The use of torture in the ticking bomb case, like the shooting down of the hijacked airplane, involves a horrible choice of evils. In my view this choice should be made with visibility and accountability, either by a judicial officer or by the President of the United States. It should not be made by nameless and unaccountable law enforcement officials, risking imprisonment if they guess wrong."

Do you still think it is "clear that he opposes torture"?
 
 
+5 Rank Up Rank Down
May 6, 2011
I don't know what you're talking about. The "could work but shouldn't do it" position has been my default and that of many people that I know. You are creating a straw man here.
 
 
+2 Rank Up Rank Down
May 6, 2011
It's an interesting thought. I've not spent long considering this argument but my opinion would in the 'waterboarding does work but shouldn't be used' bucket. I'd not considered the 'waterboarding doesn't work' option so maybe that makes me a 2-bucket person too.

Maybe it's just that with each statement you make: waterboarding does/doesn't work and waterboarding should/shouldn't be done you're adding an extra binary level of thought e.g. the topic you've stated has theoretically 4 opinions (assuming a black or white opinion and no grey areas) whereas the topic 'waterboarding does work and should be done and Obama is a great president' adds an extra complexity and of course people don't automatically consider all 8 options immediately; it takes a little time because of the complexity. A yes/no answer will always be more simple and maybe humans like to break it down and generally consider them in a certain order to subconsciously lower the number of thoughts that have to be processed.
 
 
May 5, 2011
Interesting. I have been called a knee-jerk reactionary and a bleeding-heart liberal for the same post, depending upon what keyword in the post the reader deciding to lock in on. This explains a lot.
 
 
May 5, 2011
Sigh... more "Ticking Time Bomb" scenarios from people who spent too much time watching "24". Since of course, that is the ONLY situation where torture is ever used, and people always tell the truth under torture.

I DID find a transcript, and I did not see anything in Dershowitz' remarks to support the position that "we shouldn't do it". Remember, it was Big Fat Liberal Dershowitz who suggested the institution of judicial "torture warrants", Bog help us. Rather, he was dismissing any suggestion that we could do just as well without using torture. The three alternatives he outlined are:
-- "We" (as usual, meaning "they") can continue being a bunch of lying hypocrits.
-- "We" can openly resort to any means "necessary".
-- We can start acting in accordance with our purported principles, acknowledging that this may mean we are unable to catch the bin Ladens of the world as a consequence.

[He was pretty clear that he opposed torture. -- Scott]
 
 
May 5, 2011
For all of the people that say we should not torture/waterboard, even if it works. I have to wonder in reality what their attitude about torture would be if for example their 5 year old daughter had been abducted/kidnapped and the police had captured someone that they are very confident was either the kidnapper or is closely associated with that individual or group and the child's whereabouts were still unknown.
 
 
May 5, 2011
Scott, shame on you for being pro two-bucket thinking!
 
 
+7 Rank Up Rank Down
May 5, 2011
This explains George W's popularity, though. "You're either with us or against us!" was his common refrain, causing a popular backlash against any country that didn't rush into Iraq with him. Remember Freedom Fries? That was two-bucket thinking at its most simplistic.

 
 
May 5, 2011
I started to post I'm not 2 bucket and figured it pointless. Then I did what I always do with comments here. Ranked them by vote and read the top and bottom 10. Several of the top ones I voted up, and several of the bottom ones I voted down.

Thus destroying any lingering illusion of self-awareness.
 
 
May 5, 2011
The two buckets are:

1) The home team (for any definition of home team that matters to you).

2) Everybody else.
 
 
+6 Rank Up Rank Down
May 5, 2011
I don't know if waterboarding works. I do know from personal experience that vodka-boarding works pretty darn well!
 
 
May 5, 2011
Any decision can be drawn down to 2 choices, do it or don't. It is the facts that are the basis of do it or don't do it that starts to make a branching decision tree that most often tends to need a heuristic search pattern to eliminate some unlikely options. Not to get bogged down in a waterboarding discussion, but using it as an example, your 2 buckets could further be divided into multiple buckets to include why it works or doesn't work, and why it should or should not be done. Should it be done only to certain people, should it be done in certain instances, etc.

Justifying the case that any decision is between 2 options is as easy as considering the "do nothing" option. If you don't do something, you have chosen to do nothing and if you do nothing can you live with the consequences just like if you do something can you live with the consequences.

Now, as to the 2 party system adding to or magnifying the 2 bucket theory? I believe you are overstating the problem. It is either for or against something, and the 2 parties operate more on the "friend of a friend is a friend," "enemey of an enemy is a friend," "friend of an enemey is an enemy" type mentality. While that appears to be 3 buckets, in reality there are only 2 choices: friend or enemy. I do not believe that the 2 party system adds to or enhances this 2 bucket theory. It is an unecessary complication. Go simpler, it all boils down to the fact that the general population, the base mentality of mankind wants a decision that when no one is looking and all things are equal they can flip a coin to decide what to do.
 
 
May 5, 2011
Interesting Two Bucket theory - and there's definitely some validity in it (which I had previously expressed to myself as people 'thinking in black and white', but is better expressed your way). And I am intrigued by the thought it might come from the adversarial political system (also present here in the UK). It seems possible, even probable. But untestable, sadly. (or is it? Are there political systems that have never been 'two party' whose citizens are less two bucketed?)

Anyways, on the original point, those aren't the two buckets I'd thought there were on waterboarding. I'd always thought there were a)It's wrong. Never do it, no matter what and b) It works (and therefore prevents incidents) so it's justified. The 'it doesn't work' was, I guess, my third bucket.

 
 
 
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